This Election Is About One Thing
We need to talk.
This election is not about Biden.
It’s not about the Democratic Party.
It’s about deciding what kind of world we want to live in and whether we are willing to do the work.
That’s it.
There is no magic candidate, no magic message, no magic wand for winning elections. And you know who gets this? Republican voters. They vote on issues - guns, God, abortion, and white supremacy. That’s it. They are so committed to this that they decided that they would literally abandon any pretense of valuing moral leadership and elected the antithesis of everything they claimed to stand for in 2016. That is what commitment looks like. They don’t wring their hands or fret. They just dig deeper and we need to do the same. It is not an exaggeration to say that we’re in a war for the soul of this country and you don’t win it by giving up every time you lose a battle. You win by getting up and fighting back harder.
Despite the headlines, there has been a groundswell of support for Biden since Thursday.
As of this morning, Biden raised $33M ($26M in grassroots donations and 50% from first time donors) since Thursday. All over social media - we are seeing something that we have not seen in the previous months. Thousands of people are pushing back on the pundits calling for Biden stepping down, having never demanded the man who tried to overthrow our government step down. Again and again, people - likely voters - are making clear what is at stake and are refusing to give up because of one bad night. We’ve had friends reach out and say “Tell me what to do - I’m in and ready to do the work.”
Now, we have no doubt that there will be crappy polls in the coming weeks, but polls are not static so it’s time to do the work. That said, immediate post-debate polls show the needle didn’t move much (although Univision’s undecided Latino voters all went for Biden after the debate).
It was 90 minutes. 90 minutes of Trump lying and when he wasn’t lying, he was defending January 6th insurrectionists, touting his tax cuts for billionaires, and saying that overturning Roe v. Wade was a great thing that everyone wanted.
And yes, Biden wasn’t his usual energetic self and - as described by Heather Cox Richardson explains:
While we were all hand-wringing after the debate, Biden continued on to speak at another event and then went to Waffle House (check out these great videos here and here), before landing in NC at 2am to a cheering crowd (who had been dancing for hours waiting for Biden despite it being past midnight) and giving a barnburner of a speech in Raleigh that even the NYT had to admit was powerful. He then went to NYC to commemorate Stonewall with Elton John. And this is after traveling to Europe TWICE in the previous 3 weeks and across the county. We don’t know any 20-90 year olds who could maintain that pace.
But the NYT, Obama Bros and New Yorker are saying Biden should step down.
They sure did and within 10 minutes of the debate, we entered upside down world. Trump’s Gish galloping gaslighting technique worked wonders on the media. Suddenly, Biden’s entire last 3 years meant absolutely nothing. And make no mistake, the Republicans are high-fiving as the "liberal" media does what it does best: freaking out white college-educated Democrats.
This is part of the MAGA playbook. They are hoping and praying Democrats will meltdown long enough to damage Biden and help Trump. It worked like a charm in 2016. They create chaos and the media/voters blame Democrats. Instead of focusing on the actual threat to our country (SCOTUS and MAGA), the media goes after the very people trying to put out the fire rather than the ones who started the fire. They hold Democrats to the highest standards and Republicans to the lowest.
And keep in mind - this is just a continuation of the media’s favorite topic: Biden’s age. Over the past 5 months, the top 5 US newspapers have published 10 times as many articles on Biden's age or mental acuity compared to Trump’s and have almost completely ignored Trump’s alarming cognitive decline (this clip from CNN is the first clip we’ve seen) for the past year.
Funnily enough, Trump and MAGA surrogates spent weeks before the debate saying Biden had so much energy that he must be hopped up on drugs. Yet, after one bad 90 minute debate, the media - mostly white men - turned into rabid animals for clicks, demanding that Biden step down. Not one newspaper until yesterday - thank you Philadelphia Inquirer - has demanded Trump step down. Not. One. Why? Why does every major media organization normalize Trump’s acts of insurrection, rape, fraud and deceit and yet demand that a successful president with an excellent VP and administration step down while also offering absolutely no plan for how that could possibly work? Why is the media not doubling down on the enormous destruction Trump will unleash if given the opportunity again? It is the height of gaslighting.
Thankfully, a few journalists like the always wise Lawrence O’Donnell perfectly summed up what the debate and election are really about (this may be the best 20 minutes you spend this week). The fierce Lincoln Project team stood strong, reminding us that we can win this if we stay unified behind Biden.
Yeah, but shouldn’t we consider other possible nominees?
Ok. The latest 538 poll shows that no one but Biden and Harris poll as well against Trump. Also, let’s play out what would happen if Biden were to step down tomorrow since not one of these pundits has laid out a plan that will work (in fact, many of them have admitted they don’t know that it will).
Finding a new nominee: If Biden were to step down, the nominee should be the very qualified VP Kamala Harris. Are you ready to back her 100%? If not (and you know every single pundit says she’s not “likable” enough), we will alienate the Black vote and rightly so. Without Black voters, we will not win. Of course, if Harris is the nominee (and for the record, she was our choice in 2020 and we think she’d still be a great president), it will mobilize MAGA as if Obama was running again. (Remember, we wouldn’t be in this position at all, but for racism and sexism.)
Finding a consensus candidate: Let’s pretend we live in the pundits’ fantasy land and that voters would be totally fine with us erasing VP Harris from the ticket. Finding a consensus candidate would be a bloodbath as the different wings of the pro-democracy coalition battled for the nominee position. Think Bernie vs Hillary x100. A few months before the election. Total. Disaster.
Media coverage: How do you think the media would cover this? It would be 24/7 “Democrats in Disarray”. EVERY minute would be devoted to the infighting, division, and chaos, and nothing on Trump’s plan to destroy our country.
Money: If Biden were to step down, he could transfer his war chest to Harris. If Harris is not the nominee, none of that money could be transferred to another nominee. It could go to a PAC, but that is it. If Harris is not the nominee, there will be many Democrats throwing their hat in the ring and trying to raise money which will only dilute our fundraising power, wasting all the money already invested in Biden’s campaign, and delaying building the case for the new nominee. We will essentially lose our entire investment in the presidential campaign and a year of campaign organizing.
Strategic and organizational power: Biden has over 200 campaign offices across the country, over 1,000 employees and even more volunteers. If Harris were the nominee, she would likely inherit Biden’s operation though it is still a HUGE pivot just months before the election. Anyone else will be starting from scratch and would have no time to build a powerful campaign.
Legal challenges: If Biden steps down and we have a brokered convention, there will be legal challenges which could go to the Supreme Court. Do you trust them to make decisions to help our country? We don’t.
But don’t take our word for it: Listen to Leigh McGowan, Kenneth Walden, Heather Cox Richardson, Rebecca Solnit, Kerr Bear, Justin Pearson, Jessica Yellin, or Prof. Allan Lichtman who has correctly predicted 9 out the last 10 elections and says Democrats have a better chance of winning with Biden than anyone else.
So what can we do?
Do not waste one more minute talking about whether there should be a different Democratic nominee. It is incredibly harmful and this media-generated frenzy distracts from everyone understanding the stakes. If the majority of Americans understand all the rights they will lose if Trump wins and how much Democrats have delivered (and will continue to deliver - here’s out list of wins), they will vote for Biden. THAT is the gap we need to close and Dems and Dem-allied groups are already putting out the messaging. We just need to amplify it - here’s everything you need to do that.
Stop listening to doomers. Listen to people who are focused on HOW we win elections - some of our go-to’s: Chop Wood, Carry Water - Jessica Craven, The Hopium Chronicles, Today’s Edition - Robert Hubbell, The Status Kuo - Jay Kuo and Heather Cox Richardson.
Follow and amplify Team Democracy accounts on social media. This may be one of the most important things you can do in the next 4 months. Team Democracy is messaging all day every day. But if you don’t watch commercials, follow their social media accounts, and read the newsletters, you’re not gonna see it. Here are some of the favorite accounts and our messaging starter pack.
Sign up to do your part in building the future you want! We will win because of our Margin of Effort - not Margin of Error. So stop listening to pundits and sign up today to get voters registered, engaged and informed. Here’s a list of our favorite GOTV organizations.
Donate NOW. While we usually recommend making donations to grassroots organizations (here’s our donations rec list), today - June 30th - is actually an important FEC fundraising deadline (the next one is in October) so we are recommending donating TODAY to Simon Rosenberg’s Check and Checkmate fundraising strategy. You can find the donation links here.
Friends, 90 minutes must not erase the 3.5 years of results, the 3 weeks before as Biden traveled around the world uniting our allies in democracy and peace, or the three days since where Biden has shown himself to be capable and competent. So we’re putting on our big girl boots and getting to work. We hope you will join us.